Estimating the Propagation of Interdependent Cascading Outages with Multi-Type Branching Processes

In this paper, the multi-type branching process is applied to describe the statistics and interdependencies of line outages, the load shed, and isolated buses. The offspring mean matrix of the multi-type branching process is estimated by the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and can quantify the extent of outage propagation. The joint distribution of two types of outages is estimated by the multi-type branching process via the Lagrange-Good inversion. The proposed model is tested with data generated by the AC OPA cascading simulations on the IEEE 118-bus system. The largest eigenvalues of the offspring mean matrix indicate that the system is closer to criticality when considering the interdependence of different types of outages. Compared with empirically estimating the joint distribution of the total outages, good estimate is obtained by using the multitype branching process with a much smaller number of cascades, thus greatly improving the efficiency. It is shown that the multitype branching process can effectively predict the distribution of the load shed and isolated buses and their conditional largest possible total outages even when there are no data of them.Comment: Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Power System

Optimal PMU Placement for Power System Dynamic State Estimation by Using Empirical Observability Gramian

In this paper the empirical observability Gramian calculated around the operating region of a power system is used to quantify the degree of observability of the system states under specific phasor measurement unit (PMU) placement. An optimal PMU placement method for power system dynamic state estimation is further formulated as an optimization problem which maximizes the determinant of the empirical observability Gramian and is efficiently solved by the NOMAD solver, which implements the Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) algorithm. The implementation, validation, and also the robustness to load fluctuations and contingencies of the proposed method are carefully discussed. The proposed method is tested on WSCC 3-machine 9-bus system and NPCC 48-machine 140-bus system by performing dynamic state estimation with square-root unscented Kalman filter. The simulation results show that the determined optimal PMU placements by the proposed method can guarantee good observability of the system states, which further leads to smaller estimation errors and larger number of convergent states for dynamic state estimation compared with random PMU placements. Under optimal PMU placements an obvious observability transition can be observed. The proposed method is also validated to be very robust to both load fluctuations and contingencies.Comment: Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Power System

Comparing Kalman Filters and Observers for Power System Dynamic State Estimation with Model Uncertainty and Malicious Cyber Attacks

Kalman filters and observers are two main classes of dynamic state estimation (DSE) routines. Power system DSE has been implemented by various Kalman filters, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). In this paper, we discuss two challenges for an effective power system DSE: (a) model uncertainty and (b) potential cyber attacks. To address this, the cubature Kalman filter (CKF) and a nonlinear observer are introduced and implemented. Various Kalman filters and the observer are then tested on the 16-machine, 68-bus system given realistic scenarios under model uncertainty and different types of cyber attacks against synchrophasor measurements. It is shown that CKF and the observer are more robust to model uncertainty and cyber attacks than their counterparts. Based on the tests, a thorough qualitative comparison is also performed for Kalman filter routines and observers.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1508.0725